Many Democratic voters say that the most important thing they’re looking for in a presidential candidate is an ability to defeat Donald Trump. NBC News did such voters a disservice by misrepresenting the results of a survey of head-to-head matchups in a story that came out just before the crucial Iowa caucuses.
The story “NBC/WSJ poll: Country Remains Divided Over Trump’s Impeachment Trial” (2/2/20) included a graphic depicting the results when a January 26–28 poll asked how people would vote in series of hypothetical contests with Trump. It showed Trump losing to Biden and Sanders, but defeating Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg:
But the graphic contradicted the text of the article, by NBC‘s Mark Murray, which said that the poll found that all four candidates would defeat Trump:
Looking ahead to the 2020 general election that’s still more than 270 days away, the NBC/WSJ poll shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading Trump nationally by 6 points among registered voters, 50 percent to 44 percent — though that’s down from Biden’s 9-point advantage in October.
Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., is ahead of Trump by 4 points, 49 percent to 45 percent — a drop from Sanders’ 7-point lead in July.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., holds a 3-point advantage over Trump, 48 percent to 45 percent, and former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg leads Trump by 1 point, 46 percent to 45 percent.
The graphic understates both Biden and Sanders’ margins over Trump by 1 percentage point, turns a 3-point advantage for Warren into a 1-point deficit, and reverses Buttigieg’s 1-point lead.
The full data from the poll, which the article links to, jibes with the text and not with the graphic:
ACTION ALERT: Please contact NBC and tell them to correct a February 2 graphic showing two of four Democratic candidates losing to Trump.
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I received a notice from FAIR to request that you correct some news you presented before the Iowa caucuses.
The story, “NBC/WSJ poll: Country Remains Divided Over Trump’s Impeachment Trial” (2/2/20), included a graphic depicting the results when a January 26–29 poll asked how people would vote in series of hypothetical contests with Trump.
I do not know where you got the information but it is wrong. Jim Naureckas wrote the correction which you can find on their website.
https://fair.org/home/action-alert-nbc-garbles-graph-on-democrats-electability/
I used to only google Fox and I found so much information that I did not believe on NBC and other stations that I no longer watch TV and get my news from Youtube and the internet. It isn’t necessary for you to correct the story and it will not make a difference to me. It would take years of good reporting for me to go back to believing the main stream media.
In my opinion, the polls are mostly commissioned to favor some candidate, as political operations. That’s why there are so many that after the elections they are wrong. They are like a kind of “fake news” with the appearance of “serious” information.
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I tend to agree with Patricia above that POTUS polls are of limited usefulness, as was especially proven in the 2016 POTUS election where, yes, HRC was leading in the polls and they were probably correct. However, they ultimately were NOT really measuring the correct thing because the GENERAL population only elects the president indirectly. It’s the electoral college votes that directly elect the prez, and those votes are essentially based on each states individual contests. Given that “Each state’s number of electors in the Electoral College is equal to the combined total of the state’s membership in the Senate and House of Representatives” (thank you Wikipedia), each state thus gets at least three(3) votes. This effectively ‘over-represents’ the smaller population states — for instance, Wyoming has approx 580,000 people while Wisconsin has approx 5.7 million (2015 figures), or roughly 10 times as many. In a truly proportionate electoral voting system, WI would have 10x as many votes as WY, but in actuality WI only has 10 votes to WY’s 3 votes, or only 3.3x as many. Among other reasons (notably turnout percentages), this can swing close elections, as we saw in 2016.
Also there’s the so-called ‘Bradley effect’, where people give answers they THINK are what they SHOULD be saying, but sometimes they find a way to vote otherwise.
My message to NBC….which so far won’t go through….:
Please correct the graph you broadcast February 2nd which misrepresented the results of the poll:
Your presentation showed all Democratic candidates beating Trump.
That’s wrong. Biden and Sanders are the only ones beating Trump.
Also, please tell me what went wrong down there at NBC?
Please assure me that this was a mistake.
Sorry, but I wonder. And it’s not just me.
Thank you,
Richard Bowden