The speculation about whether Texas Gov. Rick Perry will jump into the Republican presidential race boils down to one word: Jobs. Perry’s state has been generating jobs at an impressive rate–which Perry likes to think is due to low taxes and lax regulations. Some of the coverage points to important caveats–the booming oil economy, for instance, and rapid population growth both make Texas fairly unrepresentative.
Today the Wall Street Journal has an excellent piece by Ana Campoy and Sara Murray about the Texas miracle. The papers shows that many of these jobs are in the public sector; a million total new jobs over the past decade, butroughly “300,000 of the new Texas jobs were in government.”
What’s more, this graph accompanying the piece shows the rate of private sector job creation declining since 2008, while the rate of growth in public employment* continues to rise:
The Journal includes this typical line from Perry:
“Government doesn’t create any jobs,” he said last month on Glenn Beck’s show on Fox News. “They can actually run jobs away.”
He’s partly right. As the Journal points out, Perry’s budget cuts will lead to job losses in the public sector, particularly in the public schools. While he might not deserve credit for the Texas job boom, he can claim credit for some likely job losses.
*Note: Corrected to more accurately reflect the chart (thanks to commenter Kyle O.)
While I agree with the political point raised, it should be noted that the graph does not “show private sector jobs declining sharply since 2008, while public employment continued to rise.”
Instead, the graph depicts (presumably annual) net change in total jobs. The “dip” noticed in the private sector plot indicates a decrease in the rate of change in total private sector jobs, which is very different from a net decrease in private sector jobs — the latter phenomenon would be indicated by values that were negative. As a matter of fact, the number of both private and public sector jobs increased in 2010 (by values of approximately 600k and 300k, respectively).
Certainly, though, it is notable — and accurate! — that the graph “shows increases in private sector jobs declining sharply since 2008, while increases in public employment continued to rise.”
Kyle: Thanks– good point.
While the “lean” of Austeritismo can be illusory, based on what you’re looking at (loss of social services, public sector jobs and regulatory muscle as opposed to continuing corporate subsidies) …
There’s no frigging doubt about the “mean”, is there?
And Perry may say the job jump’s due to low taxes and lax regulation, but whether or not he actually believes it is a separate matter, isn’t it?
Wow did this article miss the mark.People are choosing to move to, and stay” in” Texas ,because of the way Texas handles it’s affairs.And if you think the political climate(low taxes… conservative values etc has nothing to do with it- you are daffy.To say that government jobs are what in effect MADE TEXAS GREAT these last few years is so far off the bulls eye that you in effect just shot yourself in the ass(since we are talking Texas lets use lots of gun talk to make the libs go wee wee wee all the way home.)Man say something that stupid and without any foundation but the weak correlation in this article and the average Texan might hand you your teeth.
While it is true the government continues to grow and add its own form of pestilence(and jobs) even within the sacred boarders of the lone star state much to the retching of average Texans(this is after all part of Obamas world to)Most would love to reverse that and return those jobs to the private sector.You see you seem to believe only the government can do this job or that.The average Texonian believes they could do it better almost no matter what that “it” may be.And remember government jobs are not creating any wealth.It simply re shuffles the available money.So take your “government jobs saved Texas”slogan….print it on a tee shirt and take a walk down a Dallas street and get ready to eat it.That liberal smarmy, slight of hand ,talking out of both sides of your mouth, slippery as an eel,crooked as a dogs hind leg wont fly down there.People would wind up madder than a white faced hornet in a dry gulch at you for that kind of snake oilin.Better stay where you can still con people.
I am a big fan of Perry. He is a true man.
@Kyle
Very very good analysis. However I think as Perry want to be a candidate of next election so he need some good backup. On the other hand we specially young generation will not accept him as a future leader!