Washington Post columnist Jennifer Rubin (11/7/18) had some familiar-sounding advice for Democrats based on the results of the midterm elections:
- “Be really wary of nominating a Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) type who is going to scare moderates.”
- “In states where being ‘middle of the road’ is no insult, it’s a good idea to go with a moderate.”
- “Moderates don’t have to be boring, and outside of deep-blue enclaves, it’s entirely logical to avoid overreaching.”
In case you didn’t get the message, Rubin had another column (11/8/18) the next day: “Three Cheers for the Moderates.”
“Move to the right” is always corporate media’s advice for Democrats—win or lose. But did the 2018 midterms really demonstrate the virtues of moderation?
Well, the worst news for Democrats on Tuesday was the loss of three Senate seats held by incumbent Dems: North Dakota’s Heidi Heitkamp, Indiana’s Joe Donnelly and Missouri’s Claire McCaskill. As it happens, these are the Democrats who vote second-, third- and fifth-most often in line with Donald Trump’s preferences.
Heitkamp ran an ad bragging that she “voted over half the time with President Trump.” A Donnelly spot featured Trump saying, “Sen. Donnelly, thank you very much.” McCaskill declared she was “not one of those crazy Democrats.”
That sounds like media’s idea of reach-across-the-aisle “moderates,” right? Yet they not only lost, they lost big—by 11-, 7- and 6-point margins, respectively.
Rubin didn’t mention any of these three senators, presumably because they greatly undercut the point she wants to make. Instead, she called attention to the defeat of Ohio Democratic gubernatorial candidate Richard Cordray, whom she described as “a progressive darling” and “a ‘tax and spend’ progressive” that “moderates in the suburbs might shy away” from. (When Rubin warned Democrats against the “Sanders type,” Cordray was the example she offered.)
In fact, Cordray campaigned in 1992 for Ohio’s 15th congressional district on a platform of fiscal conservatism. As Ohio attorney general, Cordray was a fierce proponent of the death penalty (AP, 4/1/09). The headline of his economic platform for governor was “Support for Small Businesses to Grow and Spread Economic Opportunity”—not exactly a line stolen from Eugene V. Debs.
There was another Democrat on Ohio ballots this election—Sen. Sherrod Brown—who’s more aptly described as a “progressive darling.” Brown’s reputation as a progressive maverick may be overstated—during the current administration, he’s voted on Trump’s side 28 percent of the time—but it’s unclear why Rubin saddled progressives with Cordray’s 4-point loss but didn’t give them credit for Brown’s 6-point victory.
Aside, that is, from the standard media assumption that moderation wins elections and any losses are to be blamed on being too far to the left.
The Odds Are Odd
FiveThirtyEight’s final poll-based projection (11/5/18) gave the Democrats an 86 percent chance of retaking the House. At 7:48 pm EST on Election Night, Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight’s editor-in-chief, tweeted: “Our model really likes how things are going for Democrats in the House so far.”
But just a half hour later, after some discouraging results from Florida, FiveThirtyEight’s model had suddenly cut in half the Democrats’ chances of retaking the House, to 39.3 percent. That failed blue wave media narrative spread like wildfire. CNN panelists David Axelrod and Van Jones immediately proclaimed “no blue wave,” as did Jake Tapper, after a tough-to-flip Kentucky House seat was called for the Republican incumbent in the 8 pm hour. Fox News’ Geraldo Rivera likewise tweeted “no wave” at 8:34 pm. The conventional wisdom on the 2018 midterms outcome was already being cast, in other words, though dozens of competitive races were still yet to be called.
But FiveThirtyEight’s model pretty quickly backtracked, as it became clear Democrats would flip dozens of House seats. As a result, at 9:11 pm, the Twitter account Political Polls tweeted the odds of a Democratic House takeover as 50/50. Same site, a mere 33 minutes later, after FiveThirtyEight had swung back to favor Democrats: “BREAKING NEWS! DEMS WILL GAIN CONTROL OF THE HOUSE FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2010.”
To recap, in the span of 80 minutes on Election Night, the odds of a Democratic House takeover went from an underdog bet to 50/50 to fait accompli.
—Reed Richardson
