The Washington Post column (10/2/15) Dana Milbank has promised to eat. (He says he’s going through with it.)
The Washington Post‘s Dana Milbank (10/2/15) said he would eat the page on which his column was printed if Donald Trump gained the Republican nomination. “The entire commentariat is going to feel a little silly when Marco Rubio wins every Republican primary,” tweeted the New York Times‘ Ross Douthat (9/25/15). “Trump Will Still Lose. Here’s How,” said Bloomberg News (1/7/16). “No, Donald Trump Won’t Win,” lectured David Brooks (New York Times, 12/4/15). And on and on.
These experts, it would seem, were wrong—and confidently, arrogantly, condescendingly so. But as noted by Glenn Greenwald and Zaid Jilani, who corralled many examples for The Intercept (5/4/16), they will pay absolutely no price for it. And that’s a problem. It isn’t that journalists should never make predictions; or that they’re expected to always be right. But you do have to wonder why so much energy is devoted to crystal-ball gazing when nothing seems to be learned when pundits are way off target.
“At the very least,” wrote Greenwald and Jilani,
when a profession that touts its expertise, collectively, is this wildly wrong about something so significant, more needs to be done than a cursory, superficial acknowledgment of error — or casting blame on others — before quickly moving on, in the hope that it’s all forgotten.
Janine Jackson is program director of FAIR and the producer and host of CounterSpin.
And of course the entire punditocracy will at best make “a cursory, superficial acknowledgment of error” but most likely will engage in “casting blame on others — before quickly moving on, in the (certain) hope that it (will) all (be) forgotten.”
Almost as good as Dana Bash saying to Sanders “You just won Indiana. When will you drop out”
There’s an irony here that I can’t quite verbalize. Doesn’t Donald Trump’s success prove that you never need to apologize or admit your judgment was bad?
Let’s take this up with some other clucks, like Thomas Friedman or others who have made a careers of wish fulfillment and lack of critical thinking.
What really hurts me is that several progressive commentators who have been consistently proven right by the course of history have been fired while the rightwing boot lickers who were consistently wrong got pay raises. This was especially pronounced in relation to the Iraq war. Just ask Jeff Cohen or Norman Solomon.
When we have President-He-Whom-Wears-Squirrel’s-Nest-on-Head, we’ll have the corporate media to thank. The punditocracy is just as guilty in the enabling of the war crimes of the Bush regime, et al. as was the regime itself. I have an indictment of them floating around my computer somewhere that I sent to the International Criminal Court, to no avail. But it includes Friedman, Will, Krauthammer, Brooks, Miller, ad nauseam the whole execrable lot.
To me this whole discussion is beside the point. Our pundits are not paid to think independently. They are paid to support the candidates of one major party or the other. Predicting victory can often be a way to support a candidate. If, for example, both Gail Collins and Paul Krugman were to decide that Trump was a better choice than Clinton because of her jingoism, you can be sure The New York Times would soon add someone new to the op-ed pages to plump for the Democrats.
As a pundit you can always tell the truth or you can work for the major media.
The following book (review here http://www.wired.com/2011/08/do-political-experts-know-what-theyre-talking-about/) from Philip Tetlock has systematically reviewed 1000s predictions of political experts in the 80s and 90s. He found that these pundits were less likely to predict the future than random chance. In my opinion, that is quite convincing evidence that these experts make the wrong predictions on purpose or in any case is enough evidence to conclude that if political experts opt for A as future event: place your bets on anything but A. In that way, we all can make a little bit of money.
Sorry: ‘to Correctly predict the future’, etc
After Bill Kristol was given a pass for his stupendously wrong predictions about Iraq and Afghanistan, why should David Brooks and Ross Douthat, et al., be given the sack for incorrectly guessing the outcome of a presidential primary? Kristol’s gross lack of prescience pertains to matters of much greater importance than who wins the right to lose to the Democratic nominee in an historic landslide, and he’s still deemed worthy by the intellectually shallow folks who produce public affairs programming (ABC’s This Morning, etc.) to make ex cathedra pronouncements on issues of the day. So why not Brooks, Douthat, Dana Milbank, among others?
I have generally made a habit of avoiding cable news, but I have made a habit of sampling of late. I am not really sure about the brouhaha over Foxs, the right-wing pundits there also cross pollinate on the other cable network-Laura Ingram on MSNBC, for example.
Who writes this S**T? “The president could face challenges in getting his message to break through against Trump, however, as the businessman has proved masterful at commanding media attention.” –The Hill
Old Fogey and Willem, above, are getting at the point that this article misses. The fact that the so-called liberal pundits of WaPo and NYT got it wrong means that something else is at play. The liberal bourgeoisie doesn’t want Trump. The fact that they were so wrong so often really only means that they were trying to shape the outcome of events by shaping public opinion. We see Fox do this all the time. The real question is, Why does the liberal bourgeoisie not want Trump? The difference between the hard right politically represented by Trump and others, backed by Koch brothers et al, is that they want to smash public worker unions (whats left of them,) privatize social security, and turn colleges and universities into workforce development institutions more so than they already are. The liberal bourgeoisie, on the other hand, is willing to make concessions to working people for fear that if the far right pushes to hard there will be a backlash and something like Occupy Wall St might really take off. In other words, better to give a little so that the wealth will continue to flow. But this sort of discussion you won’t see in mainstream media. It’s simply to class conscious. I’ve said this before, so I’ll say it again. Just because your average American has no self-awareness that he or she is a member of a class doesn’t mean that Bloomberg, Trump, the Koch brothers, and the 80 or so billionaires that possess half the wealth of the planet are not aware of themselves as a class. They most certainly are. Just don’t expect a candid discussion from them in the mainstream media.
@JB: You’ve identified the essence of the problem. Extremely rich individuals (sometimes referred to as the 0.1% but fewer than that) now control the world’s major resources. This is an unacceptable development that could lead to a tyranny unlike any that has occurred in human history.
We’ve already had two Presidents and a Vice President from major Oil companies who kept their oil stocks while waging war based on lies for oil. There has never been a serious discussion of their crimes against humanity in the mainstream media.
Now among the leading candidates for President, the Democrat is funded by Wall Street Street and the Republican is completely off the wall. Yet our pundits remain mum. Obviously, they have been bought off.
Spot on.
File under: “Accountability for everyone but us”
See also: politicians, most levels of management at most companies, lawyers, virtually all corporate persons, pretty much anyone else with power and/or money.
It’s almost like the system is rigged. Wonder why we so rarely hear about that in WaPo, NYT and Bloomberg?
Talk about lack of accountability, in the UK there’s a conservative columnist/pundit writing for the Daily Mail named Katie Hopkins who said if the Muslim guy (Sadiq Khan) got elected to Mayor of London she’d run down “Regent St. naked with a sausage up my bum.” Her words exactly, in print.
It turns out the Khan did get elected, but so far no word about Katie and her sausage.
Katie Hopkins might seek professional help, no matter who is mayor of London.
If she renegs – it’s probably for the better…
Dont believe the Media hype, the fake polls and establishment BS. The Facts remain Trump will win presidency in a landslide..Real numbers confirmed.. Trump currently leads comfortably with 74% approval rating.. sanders with 19% and lying crooked Hitlary with less than 3 %.. despite the corporate media LIES Clinton has no support from American voters. Hillary uses George Soros funded “Rent a Crowds” individuals of low income, single mothers and welfare recipients are contacted, organized and bused to clinton rallies and speeches and are then paid $15 an hour to pretend to support Hitlary.. its all a reality show. smoke and mirrors. lies and deceit to make a career criminal look good.. come November the American people will send a clear message to the Clintons and Donald Trump will become the next President.. Believe it or not. but he’s already WON. .. The only reason Career Criminals Cowards Liars and Traitors are Anti trump is because he threatens their criminal empire and existence.. The American People will end and punish a criminal government of parasites and send them to hell where they belong and its well over due. make no mistake about that.
not many people realize a 10 million dollar bounty has been put on Obama’s head and due to this barry the phony is a scared worried lil coward with no where to hide. justice is a magnificent thing.. it works in so many ways. Common knowledge Barry and others are going to face their criminal pasts
there are less than 300 people at a cinton rally almost all are corporate and media and event organisers as well as many illegals and others who cannot legally vote yet are transported to event by organisers in what can only be described as a well organized en devour to decieve stupid people. White trash Clintons Campaign is a disgrace a complete charade thast has nothing to do with reality
I love it, llove watching D trump sh*t all over them, Love watching these pundits scream and moan while being exposed as parasites, love watching them shiver with fear and regret while trying to make sense of their delusional beliefs, love watching them look like fools and weasels with shame and remorse written all over their faces. love watching them realize their lies and propaganda is being exposed on a daily basis and their cowardice nature exposed and i love the fact these cancerous parasite lock themselves inside their homes fearing the consequences of their deception and actions. I love watching scumbags caught in the act of betrayal and the realization their future looks as pathetic as they do. These pundits deserve the worst that can possibly happen and its coming faster than they ever realized.
they should be worried…
We can all agree these pundits are POS with a real lack of any redibility.
the more they open their mouth the less people listens, paid liars telling lies and the cats out of the bag.
Congratulations to President Trump.
Criminal Clinton and fraudulent Obama are in a lot of trouble, more trouble than is being reported. Obama is relying on clinton to steal the election ” not going to happen” to protect his real identity created and covered up by the CIA & DHS under Janet Napolitano and John Brennan. Obama the Clintons and others in congress are facing arrest and prosecution and will spend the rest of their lives in Prison and perhaps even death row for crimes ranging from theft, terrorism, murder, assassinations, drone killings, election fraud, espionage, treason, fraud. these are Facts not being reported in the Main stream Presstitute Media yet inside and outside the
US steps have been taken to bring these individuals to justice. Obama and Clintons are aware of this and are ill stricken with dread and fear because once out of office they are no longer protected. these cowards and criminals were never going to get away with their crimes which is now evident and already in process and grey haired scared cowardice obama has been calling anyone and everyone to no avail for protection and advice on what to do. * years of a criminal admin lead by a muslim terrorist and Manchurian candidate is over all that is left is to hang these criminals for their crimes. the pundits lies no longer work as they have no viewers no credibility there game is up their mind games finished their future non existant, its the end of the corporate media and washington elites an end to their corrupt system.. 2017 is a year obama and the clintons and many others pay the ultimate price for their documented crimes and Barrack hussain obama’s real identity released to the public and there is no stopping it..
Obama is Osama Bin laden, forensic evidence as well as facial recognition software used by and good enough for law enforcement to arrest and convict criminals has been used on Osama and Obama and s a perfect match despite Obama’s plastic surgery in 2001 and pending many months in hospital surrounded by Federal agents. signed Documentation prove this.
clintons have been blackmailing Obama with this fact and a coward will do anything a coward can do to save his neck but for obama his dentity is his downfall.